Latest Antarctic Ice Reports

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

? If you check out what CT have to say you'll find ice levels are up to a week behind last years plot........funny that eh?

GW

That graph says it all....expect another record this year...by a country mile. Time will tell but the starting point is pretty impressive to say the least. Solar cycle is not confirmed as started...it will take 6 months from the Jan spotting to decide that.

BFTP

Edited April 14, 2008 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[doctormog]

? If you check out what CT have to say you'll find ice levels are up to a week behind last years plot........funny that eh?

I'm not sure I understand your point.

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IM...t.365.south.jpg

The yeara on tear trend is obvious. Circa 1.5m sq km more than this time last year.

What does "CT" have to say? I can't find that information. Allowing for the extra week the difference would be a minimum of 1.4m sq km or so. Overall ice extent is current significantly over 2m sq km up on the same time last year.

It's not funny, it's just the current situation.

We can comment on ice concentration, ENSO and everything else but the bottom line is that this data is collected by the same method every year and has been for the last 29/30 years so the data is totally comparable. Anything beyond the current data is simply a prediction.

In summary in layman's terms the facts are there is a lot more sea ice than last year. Anything suggesting otherwise is just trying to spin the situation into something it is currently not. What the next few months or years hold remains to be seen.

[SteveB]

I think what Grey Wolf is saying, is that because there is more Ice, it will aid in the break up of the ice shelf.

The fact is the 1.5msq Km ice that we are up on last years, is now effectively multi year ice.

[ghrud]

Another cycle 24 sunspot has put in appearance confirming the 4th of jan start to cycle 24.............so much for a delayed start!

Hiya. It's now drawing towards winter down there so of course ice levels are growing. With the cold water upwelling ,caused by the increased circumpolar winds (see posts above), you would expect quite a rapid build of sea ice but as we found with the last shelf calve extra sea ice just brings more leverage to bare on the shelfs juncture with the coast (the longer the fulcrum the greater force can be applied)

Sorry, dropped in on the wrong thread thought this one was about the Antartic.

[Michael Ronayne]

A Few Comments On Solar Cycle 24 Sunspots #981 and #990

(See instruction at the bottom to run animations)

I used the NASA SOHO archives to download and examined the high resolution (1024×1024) Continuum and Mannetogram images for the first SC24 sunspot #981 which was first observed on 2008/01/04 and persisted for three days. Here are the results.

Blink Comparator of images used in NASA Press release 2008-01-04 14:24 & 14:28

http://img168.imageshack.us/img168/3149/su...01041424ab6.gif

Blink Comparator of best images from 2008-01-05 06:24 & 06:26

http://img409.imageshack.us/img409/1548/su...01050624or8.gif

In the image from 2008-01-05 there are three clearly desirable sunspots and three to four smaller sunspots.

Note this little gem in the NASA press release,

Solar Cycle 24 Begins

http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2008/10...olarcycle24.htm

http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2008/im...e24/newspot.jpg

"Sunspot 981 was small–only about as wide as Earth, which counts as small on the grand scale of the sun–and it has already faded away. But its three day appearance on Jan. 4-6 was enough to convince most solar physicists that Solar Cycle 24 is underway."

If Sunspot #981 was "small" how should NASA characterize Sunspot #990? Let's look at Sunspot #990.

In the following Blink Comparator analysis one sunspot was clearly visible. There is approximately a one hour difference in time between the two images which is why there is a small displacement.

Blink Comparator for Sunspot #990 2008-04-13 21:26 & 22:24

http://img257.imageshack.us/img257/3599/su...agblink2tq3.gif

Load the following animation to see the event which occurred on 2008-04-14 between 16:05 and 16:15 where a second sunspot was attempting to form. I suspect that this was the event which earned Sunspot #990 a 12. Shortly after this Sunspot #990 disappeared from the 1024x1024 Continuum images.

Blink Comparator for Sunspot #990 2008-04-14 between 16:05 & 16:15

http://img91.imageshack.us/img91/4360/suns...magblinkpg6.gif

Clearly compared to Sunspot #981, Sunspot #990 is pathetic. It lasted a little longer than a day and the second spot may have been wishful thinking. Based on two data points Solar Cycle 24 is moving in the wrong direction. At this rate we will be lucky the reach solar minimum be the end of 2008, if then.

Solar Cycle 23 sunspots continue to dominate. A SC23 Sunspot #991 emerged two days ago and then faded after 24 hours; the solar disk is again blank. If anything SC23 and SC24 activity continues to decrease in strength.

I have additional posts over at http://www.solarcycle24.com/ on Sunspot #991.

Mike

Note:

To view using IE press the "F11" key to toggle between full screen and the normal IE display. To stop the animation, press the "Esc" key. To restart the animation press "F5". The solar image is best viewed in full size, if using IE pass the pointer over the image and click if a magnifying glass is displayed with a "plus" sign in the center. The blink speeds are one frame per second for all animations referenced here. Date/time stamps are in the lower left corner.

Edited April 21, 2008 by Michael Ronayne

[Michael Ronayne]

Do not put too much stock in the numbers from CT. You will understand why in a few weeks!

Mike

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

Do not put too much stock in the numbers from CT. You will understand why in a few weeks!

Mike

Fantastic work, and interesting for the regular person to look at too! Thanks!

Can a moderator start a sunspot thread? Since we don't have one and we can transfer the posts from here to there.

[James M]

Fantastic work, and interesting for the regular person to look at too! Thanks!

Can a moderator start a sunspot thread? Since we don't have one and we can transfer the posts from here to there.

There's a Solar and Aurora activity thread here:

http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?showtopic=33760

Edited April 22, 2008 by James M

[Gray-Wolf]

Do not put too much stock in the numbers from CT. You will understand why in a few weeks!

Mike

You mean some folk do put stock in the C.T. info??? I like to keep chinese whispers as a game not as my basis for scientific knowledge.........

[oldsnowywizard]

nothing wrong with Ct, it has glitches like every other site, it has collated the same data in the same way for 20 years. it has similar representations to other well known and founded web sites that you also seem to displace easily.. you only stick to satelite images or wonder why an average chart such as shown on nsidc doesnt have a realtime representation of whats going on.. or otherwise make claims without any data to back you up.

i of course await for the GW site showing 100% accuracy of ice state, thickness and concentration.. until such time i suggest you dont pass comment on something just because it doesnt sometimes show what you are harping on about.. i shall give you an example.. you still havent backed up your claim that last years sea ice levels were a record low not a high.

if you compare this time last year you will notice that there is indeed much more sea ice in terms of extent... and probably multiyear ice due to ice retention in the melt season..

source NOAA.. sorry i cant post the images for some reason?

[oldsnowywizard]

looks like some impressive winds around the continent at the moment!

-69 degrees c recorded a few days ago.. brrr

[Michael Ronayne]

The AGW religious cult has a dirty little secret. The theory of climate forcing predicts that the minor greenhouse gas Carbon Dioxide should have its greatest impact in the Arctic and Antarctic where the major greenhouse gas Dihydrogen Monoxide has predicated out of the atmosphere. While the Arctic has been warming as prophesized the Antarctic has been cooling, a fact about which the greenhouse industry has been in denial. Basically you have a theory which is correct 50% of the time and wrong 50% of the time. There is no need for an expensive supercomputers to do modeling; flipping a penny will yield the same results.

But in Nature News there are joyous tidings for the faithful, the Holly Office of Anthropogenic Global Warming has determined that the Antarctic is cooling, and dare I say its ice mass increasing, because sinful humanity created the Ozone Hole, which thank Gaia is now shrinking. Once the Ozone Hole (which is really not a hole) is gone the Antarctic will warm and the icecap will melt just as prophesy foretold. O joyous day, soon the seaside cities of the evil Americans will be inundated if they don't repent their Carbon Dioxide addiction. The news for the sinful Australians is even bleaker, as they can expect inundation and drought. So for all you Watermelons out there, it is now OK to acknowledge that the Antarctic is cooling and its ice mass increasing. Sinful humanity is at fault!

Antarctic ice threatened by ozone-hole recovery

http://www.nature.com/news/2008/080429/full/news.2008.787.html

This theory has been around for a number of years now. Once I jokingly commented that Antarctic cooling would be explained away by the Ozone Hole because in the AGW playbook, humans are always at fault. Remind me to never crack jokes involving the stupidity levels of Watermelons again.

Mike

[trevw]

The AGW religious cult has a dirty little secret. The theory of climate forcing predicts that the minor greenhouse gas Carbon Dioxide should have its greatest impact in the Arctic and Antarctic where the major greenhouse gas Dihydrogen Monoxide has predicated out of the atmosphere. While the Arctic has been warming as prophesized the Antarctic has been cooling, a fact about which the greenhouse industry has been in denial. Basically you have a theory which is correct 50% of the time and wrong 50% of the time. There is no need for an expensive supercomputers to do modeling; flipping a penny will yield the same results.

But in Nature News there are joyous tidings for the faithful, the Holly Office of Anthropogenic Global Warming has determined that the Antarctic is cooling, and dare I say its ice mass increasing, because sinful humanity created the Ozone Hole, which thank Gaia is now shrinking. Once the Ozone Hole (which is really not a hole) is gone the Antarctic will warm and the icecap will melt just as prophesy foretold. O joyous day, soon the seaside cities of the evil Americans will be inundated if they don't repent their Carbon Dioxide addiction. The news for the sinful Australians is even bleaker, as they can expect inundation and drought. So for all you Watermelons out there, it is now OK to acknowledge that the Antarctic is cooling and its ice mass increasing. Sinful humanity is at fault!

Antarctic ice threatened by ozone-hole recovery

http://www.nature.com/news/2008/080429/full/news.2008.787.html

This theory has been around for a number of years now. Once I jokingly commented that Antarctic cooling would be explained away by the Ozone Hole because in the AGW playbook, humans are always at fault. Remind me to never crack jokes involving the stupidity levels of Watermelons again.

Mike

Entertainingly written, but could it just be that the reason the AGW 'cult' can always find an explanation for climate behaviour, that at first glance does not appear to fit in with their hypothesis, is that the hypothesis is correct and therefore there has to be an explanation that allows it to fit in with the hypothesis?

just a thought, it just seems that to detractors these explanations would naturally seem 'overly convenient' but if for just a second you posit that the hypothesis is by and large correct then they are inevitable. Maybe humans are largely at fault...

Edit - more on topic it looks like the CT data, at least for the arctic in Baffin and Bering is getting back to where one might expect it to be. I would expect them to smooth out that blip in the next couple of weeks?

Edited April 30, 2008 by trevw

[jethro]

Found this, not a clue what the implications of this are; time will tell I guess.

http://www.terradaily.com/reports/The_Anta...Colder_999.html

[oldsnowywizard]

im not sure what to believe any more.. there could be something behind the ozone hole leading to a cooler antartica.. however ..

this clearly shows hugely positive temp anomilies in this area.. i have been checking these charts on a regular basis.. it would seem that during the summer period there are negative anomolies and during winter positive anomolies... the ozone does change on a regualr basis however i doubt the hole shrinks in winter and expands in winter.. or maybe it does?

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Found this, not a clue what the implications of this are; time will tell I guess.

http://www.terradaily.com/reports/The_Anta...Colder_999.html

Cooling oceans, linked to solar cycle and the real effect will be felt in about 5 years time.

BFTP

[oldsnowywizard]

Do not put too much stock in the numbers from CT. You will understand why in a few weeks!

Mike

ok im impressed.. CTs chart show a reduction in sea ice.. and a fall in the mean... still above last years level and still above the mean level, however.. could you share with us how you pinned this exactly?

[summer blizzard]

We are still around a million kilometres above last years record level, however progress appears to be slowing relative to the mean.

[Mr Sleet]

Almost unnoticed, SH ice is storming ahead, a new record looks a distinct probability.

[Gray-Wolf]

Even in the depths of the Antarctic winter Wilkins continues to fail

http://www.terradaily.com/reports/Even_The..._Shelf_999.html

Do check out the animation.

Mr S., do we think that the 'masks' placed over the sat images used to calculate sea ice area/extent are updated quickly enough to reflect the amount of open water that now exists where shelfs once sat? Seems to me that by just freezing over these areas you would get a larger 'ice extent' without any necessary 'growth' in ice levels?

[oldsnowywizard]

Even in the depths of the Antarctic winter Wilkins continues to fail

http://www.terradaily.com/reports/Even_The..._Shelf_999.html

Do check out the animation.

Mr S., do we think that the 'masks' placed over the sat images used to calculate sea ice area/extent are updated quickly enough to reflect the amount of open water that now exists where shelfs once sat? Seems to me that by just freezing over these areas you would get a larger 'ice extent' without any necessary 'growth' in ice levels?

interesting read, the cause of the breakup still unknown... the story below it might hint at a clue IMO.. with the constant storms and strong ocean currents its not really suprising that the ice will break up quickly once a weakness has been exploited.

the next point is speculation isnt it? do you have proof that this is the case that models are nt updated quickly enough? be interested to know if you have

[jethro]

Is it possible that the increase in ice volume is causing the natural calving process to accelerate, thus causing the break up of the ice shelf?

[Mr Sleet]

Even in the depths of the Antarctic winter Wilkins continues to fail

http://www.terradaily.com/reports/Even_The..._Shelf_999.html

Do check out the animation.

Mr S., do we think that the 'masks' placed over the sat images used to calculate sea ice area/extent are updated quickly enough to reflect the amount of open water that now exists where shelfs once sat? Seems to me that by just freezing over these areas you would get a larger 'ice extent' without any necessary 'growth' in ice levels?

Hi GW

I would say that if the shelf is continuing to break up in winter then most probably temperature isn't the cause.

I think the CT graphs are very useful as they cover a very large area and enable comparisons to be made back to 1979. The hypothetical phenomenon you refer to if it exists should have been in play throughout the period from 79, hence it is perfectly valid to compare now with the past 30 years

Mr S

Is it possible that the increase in ice volume is causing the natural calving process to accelerate, thus causing the break up of the ice shelf?

I would say that this is a much more likely explanation.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Almost unnoticed, SH ice is storming ahead, a new record looks a distinct probability.

No I put it in the enviro thread...but yes I suppose it was unnoticed Record indeed IMO and this is inspite of Larsen B and now Wilkins collapsing.

BFTP

[Gray-Wolf]

C,mon guys! we all know that Antarctica exists in it's own 'splendid isolation' so far a global climate is concerned (apart from the peninsula which sticks out into the real world. Eventually the south pole will succumb to global changes. It's like saying that one man can beat a full team when you insist that the small percentage of the globe which is Antarctica will not only overcome what is occurring globally but in some way overturn our efforts to warm the globe. Time too rise and shine and catch a whiff of the caffiene.....