TC 'Gonu---Category-3

[NL]

Extremely rare Tropical Cyclone (cat 4 ) with winds of 130 knots is about to hit the Gulf of Oman in the middle east, it is expected to decrease in strength on landfall..

[kold weather]

The strongest system of the year so far in the N.Hemisphere, what a beast it is as well. not got time to do a complete run-through on it, needless to say right now it looks like textbook category-5, sat. imagery suggests very powerful system and dvarok has been close to the 7's if not upto 7.5 all day---eqautes to sub-900mbs and cat-5 winds upto 160kts.

Its just as good looking as any system is recent years, compares well to Monica, Rita and Katrina (Wilma was a little different....) wit hthe small but extremely well formed eye, huge inflow on its SW quad and very cold cloudtops, looks like a category-5 even if its not quite offical.

I suspect it'll hit Oman very hard indeed, it will have to undergo a eyewall replacement eventually and then will weaken probably to low end cat-4. Still sea temps are favorable for a major cyclone the whole way through to landflall so I'd be suprised if it doesn't hit at elast as a major, it may be more yet...

will watch this very closely over the next 24hrs though!

Could be one of the stronger systems to form globally this year and in a place that doesn't commonly see such powerful systems, even if the waters is there to support it. Offically 130kts, probably a little higher in truth.

Edited June 4, 2007 by kold weather

[biffvernon]

Seems it made Cat 5 at 160mph at noon GMT today, according to http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/na200...ck.html#a_topad

Discussion of implications for oil industry at http://www.powerswitch.org.uk/forum/viewtopic.php?t=4311

[Iceberg]

I don't follow these normally, but this is a kind of 1/50 yr event for them.

Looks to be 140Kt, with Landfall being a real problem as it could skirt up the coast past Muscat, kitting alot of coastal communities. From here anywhere from Iran to possibly even Doha could suffer.

Considering the oil implication the price will probably go up again, and also this is one of the busyest shipping lanes in the world.

A double landfall looks possible as well.

[kold weather]

The JWTC says its a cat-5 but the offical forecast have it at a 130kt hurricane, to be honest I'd be more inclined to believe the higher value given the very impressive imagery, the offical forecasts were way too converative with Monica last year and i think this is the case here as well.

As for the forecast, some of the models have it missing Oman completely and instead hitting Iran, not sure how strong they have it at the time but even a 70kt hit would be rather uncommon for them I guess. Right now still looking awesome. I'b be watching to see if it skirts up the channel or not.

Lest us just say hope we don't see a system like this close to a major city this summer in the US, right now a powerful upper high is above it, so ther eis no shear at all bar the shear the ssytems circulation is creating which is obviously minimal, system appears to be getting a touch larger, this may just be the first signs of the pressure gradient becoming slacker, maybe. either way this beast is going to hit, the latest ECM still goes for an Oman hit...

Edited June 4, 2007 by kold weather

[Calrissian]

omg, that is amazing ! What a surprise for early June, I can't remember seeing such a fierce storm, hell, it even rates as strong as Katrina.

I pray that the mighty Burj Dubai, and all the other precious new buildings in Dubai will remain safe.

Calrissian: may the gods look kindly on Dubai

[Iceberg]

Dubai looks ok, but Oman's main Oil facility at Musqat looks like it will take a direct hit, expect production from Oman to take the best part of 12 months to reach current levels and probably 3 months to reach 20% levels, I would also get use to seeing petrol at 105-110 per litre in this country.

A worse case scenario see's it hitting Iran and UAE as well, looking at model guidance none of them really have a clue atm.

[Supercell]

The Arabian Sea and associated Gulf's sea surface temps can reach the mid 30s. When a rare tropical cylone does develop, the fuel is there for a big one.

[kold weather]

It's certainly the strongest storm ever in this part of the world by some way, on UKWW someone has posted a map of tropical cyclones and this is way stronger thenanything else, even category 1-2 systems aren't at all common here!

Calrissian -I suspect it probably is close t othe strength of Katrina, offical forecasts have it a bit weaker but sat. imagery has been pretty constant earlier today in having the ssytem peaking around 900mbs. Was it that strong, we may never know.

Anyway recent sat. images showing eye is starting to cloud over, this combined with the increasing size of the cloud coverage and it starting to track into a region of lower heat content is suggestive to me of a eyewall replacement is starting and this should mean Gonu starts to weaken quite soon andovernight a drop to low end category-4 is likely, maybe high end cat-3 given its quite a small system (though it is growing as its CDO expands with the slackening of the pressure gradient as the eye starts to cloud over.)

[Iceberg]

Good Dvorak numbers still, but downgraded to a conservative 135Kt.

Gradually weakening is expected now down to 95Kt when landfall takes places (still a CAT 3 though !)

050000Z --- NEAR 20.9N 62.5E

MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 08 KTS

POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM

POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

Quite a large radius of strong winds.

However musqat is nolonger the target(although it's very close !), a turn north occurs plunging Gonu into Iran, thanks to a ridge weakeness (I'll take this plunge north with a pinch of salt atm, even if all the models are forecasting it). IMO they are forecasting the environment but not the monster.

Matt

[kold weather]

Conu is looking better then I expected this morning, still well defined, given it has a very solid structure right now and no real problems as of now... however what might happen from now on is the western side of the system may start to become a little less impressive in terms of convection as it starts to suck in the much drier desert air. The other issue that may start to weaken it a touch is the breif drop in heat content as it brushes close to Oman combined with the drier air may help to weaken the beast. Still going to be strong relative to what this area normally sees however.

Edited June 5, 2007 by kold weather

[Joneseye]

Just stumbled on this thread, what a beast!

It begs the question about whether the infrastructure in the area is built to withstand such a powerful storm? I somehow doubt it, so hopefully it will land away from the populated areas.

I am sure the rainfall will come as a bit of a shock to places that normally recieve less than 100mm per year.

[Iceberg]

quick update:

The track has been moved further eastward, with a more pronounced turn to the north, due to increase weakness in the ridge.

Intensity down to 125Kt. And further weakening expected.

Completely agree KW, dry air will be a major problem from now onwards,due to this it won't expand any further.

It's also increasing in speed and could potentially still hit the Pakistan boarder. Looks like the oil interesting are much safer than last night.

Edited June 5, 2007 by Iceberg

[kold weather]

I suspect some of the places near the coast won't be desert for a while Joneseye, flooding is a huge likelyhood, even if the dry air does dry out the cyclone a little and its foward speed should help reduce the amount of rainfall possible, certainly the rainfall will beat the yearly annual rainfall this area gets in places. In terms of structure given the decreasing heat content it should continue to slowly become less organised as time goes on thoughthe major factor is going to be the dry air rather then heat content, even though its decreasing it should be able to sustain cat-3/4 sort of powers and given the inner core is still quite strong according to microwave imagery and so the drop isn't that large otherwise a full blown eyewall replacement would have occured by now, which it tried last night but sort of just got stuck halfway, as you'd expect when a minor drop in heat content occurs.

Instead the weakening is occuring from the outside inwards, classic sign of dry air starting to slowly erode away the western quadrants.

[Iceberg]

More degredation so it's probably a CAT 3 now. Dry air could well cause a massive collapse of the system in the next 24 hrs.

[kold weather]

Looks just like Katrina when it made landfall, dry air isn't quite as impressive but you can see the western qauds are really supressed:

http://www.katrina-hurricane.biz/images/ka...ricane-pic3.jpg

Winds on that western side are probably no more then 90kts as dry air makes it harder to transport the higher winds from the clouds down to the surface. Eyewall is also close t opening up on the SW side, thats what normally happens when dry air starts to entrail into the systems circulation, If i had to make a guess what it is now, probably around 115-120mph max winds in the NE quad which is still fairly moist. Western side is going to be far weaker given the dry air that is being dragged in from Iran into the NW qaud. I think the current forecast guidence may be about right, will probably come in as a low end cat-2 when it hits Iran, It'll probably be about a category higher for the hit on Oman.

Edited June 5, 2007 by kold weather

[Calrissian]

Well, despite the weakening, its a freaky site to see a hurricane about to cross the coastline of a desert.

When you guys talk about 'dry air' intruding, I think 'no kidding, its a desert'

At least the wondrous Dubai area will be safe from Gonu, but who knows what might yet be ahead for this region.

Calrissian: eyes on BB8

[kold weather]

To get a category-5 system (well I'm not sure if it offically made cat-5 or not, but it WAS in my mind a cat-5 so thats good enough for me!!) where Gonu was placed is probably about as common as getting a hurricane like Catrina in the South Atlantic, before this month there were no records of a system being this strong in that region, heck major cyclones are rare enough there.

By the way, Gonu is falling apart pretty rapidly right now, that dry air is killing it very quickly indeed, probably middle cat-2 right now looking at on Sat.

Edited June 5, 2007 by kold weather

[Iceberg]

Position is further west than last time.

051200Z --- NEAR 21.9N 61.1E

MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 10 KTS

POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM

POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT

Keeping Musqat in the storm force winds again.

[Somerset Squall]

To get a category-5 system (well I'm not sure if it offically made cat-5 or not, but it WAS in my mind a cat-5 so thats good enough for me!!) where Gonu was placed is probably about as common as getting a hurricane like Catrina in the South Atlantic, before this month there were no records of a system being this strong in that region, heck major cyclones are rare enough there.

According to Unisys and RSOE Havaria Gonu did reach category 5 but I'm not sure of the accuracy of these sites.

[Iceberg]

Direction has changed again (This must be getting really anoying for anyone in it's path !).

Now a direct hit on musqat again. and travelling straight up the gulf (worse case scenario again )

Strength seems to be going down still, but the dry air is making some attempt at being mixed out, if this happens the strength should stablise.

She did indeed reach CAT 5 status officially.

[Mondy]

Crude-oil futures declined Tuesday, as Tropical Cyclone Gonu weakened off the coast of Oman and moved toward Iran without causing a major supply disruption in the Persian Gulf.

..said the Wall Street Journal

[NL]

Latest satellite image of Gonu still has 120mph winds.!!

And this is what it was like yesterday

[Calrissian]

That picture from yesterday is truly astounding. I can't imagine anything topping that for this year in terms of 'weird weather'.

As it is, a Cat'2 storm crossing over the desert is going to be one crazy event.

[Iceberg]

Looks set to hit Muscat today(probably as a CAT 1 (maybe a 2), this is the largest city in Oman with 600,000 people.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Muscat,_Oman

As you can see from the wiki map it's very very flat with power stations, desalination plants, oil terminals etc all on the sea front.

The path is still the same and virtually travels up the Gulf shipping lane. Even a TS with gusts of 50-60 mph will be a problem I think.