Barry

[kold weather]

Looks like 92L will be upgraded to a tropical system according to the NRL site, not sure exactly whether TD or TS however I strongly suspect we have tropical storm Barry from temperature gradient, pressure and also wind speed. Not really much of a need to update my last post i made about an hour ago, so refer to post 4 in this thread:

http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?s...mp;#entry991485

Of course note though right now the invest is a good deal stronger then I suspected at the time and also looks as though shear is lower then first expected which is making a very large difference due tothe system moving in the same general direction as the storm which is reducing the shear as is the small upper high that formed early yesterday, recon shows stats that you'd expect to see in a moderate strength Tropical Storm though the satelite imagery does show a rather messy sheared system, Alberto mananged to get close to hurricane force in a similar place and time depsite a strong subtropical jet. If you want comprasions look at Alberto last year and Allison 95. By the way here is the source of the upgrade right now, its unoffical BUT they usually are right about upgrades:

http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi

Once the offical word is out then I'll post it on a new post to stop this present one getting too long!

Still looks like an active start to the season!

Edited June 1, 2007 by kold weather

[kold weather]

Not waiting no more, its now official, we have tropical storm Barry:

104

WTNT32 KNHC 012035

TCPAT2

BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM BARRY ADVISORY NUMBER 1

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022007

500 PM EDT FRI JUN 01 2007

...TROPICAL STORM BARRY FORMS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED

FOR THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM BONITA BEACH NORTHWARD TO KEATON

BEACH...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH OF

KEATON BEACH TO ST. MARKS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT

TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA

WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT

TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH

AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE

INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED

BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BARRY WAS

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.5 WEST OR ABOUT 320

MILES...520 KM...SOUTHWEST OF TAMPA FLORIDA AND ABOUT 235 MILES...

375 KM...WEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.

BARRY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR. A GRADUAL

TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS

EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS ANTICIPATED BEFORE

BARRY REACHES THE COAST.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM

MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS

1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE

LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE

POSSIBLE IN THE WARNING AREA NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF WHERE THE

CENTER OF BARRY MAKES LANDFALL.

BARRY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6

INCHES OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND PENINSULA INTO SOUTHEASTERN

GEORGIA WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...24.2 N...85.5 W. MOVEMENT

TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE

CENTER AT 800 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100

PM EDT.

$$

FORECASTER AVILA

As expected tropical storm watches present for the west coast of Flrodia. I suspect that landflal for Barry will be NW Flroida close to the Big bend but to the north of Tampa and should hopefully provide some much needed rain to SE USA. Loop current in the region is probably responsible for the recent burst in convection that has been enough to upgrade the system and several powerful cells near the center have blown up just to the north of the LLC. Over the next 12hrs or so the system should slowly strengthen under this current though I suspect any strengthening shouldn't occur too rapidly given the jet streak and only moderate heat content, if it can keep that convection to its north still strong then 50-55mph is possible during this time period. Once it gets north of there it'll probably just hold steady till landfall, where shelf waters may just decay it a touch structurally though it won't make much of a differenc ein terms of offical wind speeds

Edited June 1, 2007 by kold weather

[mettalfabrik]

one to watch as it heads up the east coast USA

000

WTNT22 KNHC 012036

TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM BARRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022007

2100 UTC FRI JUN 01 2007

AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED

FOR THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM BONITA BEACH NORTHWARD TO KEATON

BEACH...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH OF

KEATON BEACH TO ST. MARKS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT

TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA

WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT

TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH

AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOU

AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE CHECKED THE SYSTEM IN THE GULF OF

MEXICO AND FOUND THAT THE PRESSURE HAS DROPPED TO 1000 MB WITH

FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 52 KNOTS. INITIALLY...THE SYSTEM APPEARED TO

BE A SUBTROPICAL STORM. HOWEVER...DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED

NEAR THE CENTER DURING THE PAST HOUR AND THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE

LOCATED NEAR THE CENTER...SUPPORTING A TROPICAL CLASSIFICATION.

BARRY COULD RETAIN SOME NON-TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. THE CYCLONE

IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND IS HEADING

TOWARD COOLER WATERS. THEREFORE...NO SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS

INDICATED BEFORE IT REACHES THE COAST. BARRY SHOULD BECOME

EXTRATROPICAL BETWEEN 24 AND 36 HOURS.

BARRY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH OR 010 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS AND

BECAUSE THE CYCLONE IS ALREADY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY

FLOW AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF

MEXICO...IT SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN MORE TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH

AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THIS IS THE SOLUTION PROVIDED BY MOST

OF THE GLOBAL MODELS INCLUDING THE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION

TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTION OF

THE FLORIDA WEST COAST AND PANHANDLE.

Edited June 1, 2007 by blackdown

[Iceberg]

He really shot out of nowhere. Goes to show what a could LLCC can achieve given a bit of help.

Shear seems to have removed any central convection and he's def on a downward trend now, but it Fantastic to get a storm here so early in the season (on the first day !). I wonder whether this is the earlyest Carr/Gom named storm in the last 100 years ?

Almost forgot latest NHC update.

"AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF INTENSIFICATION EARLIER TODAY...STRONG

SHEAR HAS REMOVED MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. THIS INDICATES THAT

BARRY IS NOT CURRENTLY STRENGTHENING. THE CLOUD PATTERN CONSISTS OF

AN EXPOSED CENTER SURROUNDED BY A CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND EXTENDING

FROM WESTERN CUBA NORTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE

SURFACE CIRCULATION REMAINS WELL-DEFINED."

Given the SST's and the above I wonder whether this was really a hybrid storm ?. The current precip certainly seems frontal in nature......

[kold weather]

Iceberg- Shear has certainly gotten stronger overnight and as you can see convection has been well removed from the low level circulation after briefly getting stronger and upto 50mph (as suspected last night) as the system benefited from the flare-up of convection that occurred to its north as it started to move over the loop current and the higher heat content that i present with it. Now shear has gotten stronger you can clearly see it is extremely lop-sided with the convection blown over Florida, which I'm sure is a good thing for those who are having drought conditions presently over there. Given its look ther eis a chance that Barry will be down to a tropical depression before landfall as it starts to heads over the cooler waters with the low level circulation staying naked as I suspect shear won't ease down till its too late. It'll be interesting to see how weal the naked circulation can keep going.

As for the nature of this system, certainly last night it was purely tropical, no doubt about it and it was over moderate heat content that can certainly support pure tropical cyclones right now, recon pretty much confirmed a warm core with both temps and dew-points suggestive of this with temps higher in the center then in the outer bands, granted the gradient was fairly weak as you'd expect in a very disorganized tropical cyclone. Wind speed maxes at one point were just 10-15 miles away from the center, thats another classic sign of a pure tropical system.

Is it pure tropical right now?

Thats a hard one to answer, given heat content is rapidly decreasing below it along with the sea surface temperatures. It may start to obtain more extra tropical features from now on in and become some sort of hybrid system.

Edited June 2, 2007 by kold weather

[kold weather]

Quick update on the now rapidly decaying Barry. The very displaced low level circulation continued to move ENE and about 4pm our time made landfall just to the north of Tampa. Winds weren't that high as suspected and most of the rain had already come in with the displaced convection to the north-east of the centers circulation.

Now on land the LLC is starting to fill in though satelite visiable imagery however I suspect while it is still possibly fairly warm cored from now on in as it starts to interact with the trough dragging it northwards its going to start really gaining baroclinic features and turn completely extra-tropical, either way Barry is very soon going to lose its tropical status, probably in the next 6-12hrs. As it happens convection has increased over the previous few hours as the center moves onland as the lapse rates increase compared to over sea and gives greatly instablity and so convection can fire up over land which is what is happening. The left-overs of Barry will head NE out into the SW Atlantic where they will either totally turn extra tropical or remain so. convection may breifly charge up again over the gulf stream but nothing really tropical in nature I suspect.

[Iceberg]

Thanks for the reply KW, I didn't see the begining of it as it's been a really hectic weekend. It certaintly had a good LLCC, I've seen systems with a warm core near the azores classified as sub tropical though (it all depends on whether or not it got it energy from the core or rather from some sort of external temp gradient), personally I don't think convection was in the centre long enough for it to create and sustain energy from a vertical motion to be called a TS and it fits in with the NHC's view of classifying systems that might hit the US but not those that don't.

[kold weather]

Its an interesting system to study and look back on, i just made this post over on UKWW about it:

I suspect by the time the system got close to landfall it was extra tropical anyway in nature, I do suspect that at least for a time when the system was very close to the loop current it may have been tropical, or at the very least subtropical though, it did have a warm core, recon showed that while weak it was present and at the time peak winds were close to the low center as well. After that who knows, we've got no real proof either way, it probably became some sort of hybrid creature though the lack of deep convection does indicate to me it was probably more Baroclinic then Barotropic.

The hard part aobut all this though is what part did the jet stream play in this, as we know the jet stream was very close by and so may well have gave it a helping hand, the fact flight level winds were found to be upto 60kts despite a real lack of deep convection makes me a little more suspect, esp knowing that there really wasn't any major sort of pressure gradient. However as i said in the above post for a short time it did look more tropical then not as it passed over the higher heat content of the loop current and recon did find evidence of a tropically based system, sub or pure tropical for a short period of time and yet it does appear it may have been baroclinically enhanced by the nearby jet stream...which later moved a little further north and stripped the system bare.

It's one of those systems were there probably isn't a right or wrong idea!