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Carinthians Latest Arctic Reports - (Summer 2007)


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Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
Can someone more experienced (Caranthian?) please give a brief analysis on the arctic ice behaviour in 2005 on the other side of the globe to us. I would like to see if there is a correlation between higher ice levels in the East Russia/ West Canada regionand the extreme cold & record snowfall that struck Japan in winter 05/06

links attached:

http://www.snowjapan.com/e/gallery/index-snowy-japan.html

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/asia-pacific/4591950.stm

Hi Big Bear,

I don't think there will be a correlation between higher ice levels in the areas you have mentioned and the record snowfalls in Japan 05/06. By Mid-Winter the ice conditions in this part of the Arctic are always the same. However, pressure distribition is important to the Japanese winter. The January winter mean is 4 C in the South Islands and -6C in Hokkaido. That particular winter saw an exceptional cold pool over the Sea of Okhotski with the polar front stationary over Japan keeping the warmer air flow associated with the North Equatorial Current much further south than normal.

Similar picture occurred over the British Isles during the early part of the 1982/83 winter that caused very heavy snowfalls.

Japan has a greater thermal contrast in winter than in the British Isles, hence the chance of heavier snowfalls.

C

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Posted
  • Location: G.Manchester
  • Location: G.Manchester

Does look as if next week will see the first major displacement of cold air south from the arctic north of us;

Rtavn1202.png

First time there are widepsread below -5cs.

Edited by Optimus Prime
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Posted
  • Location: Zurich Switzerland
  • Location: Zurich Switzerland

unfortunately there have been two plumes over Alaska and Canada this year, which melted a lot of ice. the only lucky thing is the deplaced cold air over Greenaland and Svalbard,although creating our slightly bizarre summer, has also kept sea ice concentration quite well. There "should" be another 3 weeks of normal 850 hpa temps and normal ground temps around much of the artic, which should limit any further loss and then with a bit of luck we should start to see a re-freeze. The major concern is that there are now +11 degree sea temp anomolies around the Canadian sector..source ncoda sea temp anamoly... it will therefore take a while for the sea temps to get cold enough for ice formation...(unisys has less of an anomoly but still +5)

the only slight ray of hope is that sea ice levels will be back in the winter, with no sun and freezing cold temps, the question is. will the artic recover well enough?

lets hope so!

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Posted
  • Location: Reading/New York/Chicago
  • Location: Reading/New York/Chicago
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnz500mate.gif

I agree that it is not a Polar Votex as such, though it is close to becoming one, the chart above illustrates what i would call stage two of three in the formation of a Polar Vortex, in that the upper cold pool has condenced into one area meaning that the cold pool can not be diluted and as such can expand, as the chart below shows.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnz500m15.gif

26th is the day to watch.

I think it may be a bit to early to call this yet. You have to bear in mind that further south there is still an awful lot of heat, indeed near record heat, which will probably flow north again at some stage. The sun is still very strong and I think it would be very difficult for a Polar Vortex to become established and stick around before the end of July. I'm not saying it couldn't happen, but I think the chances are very low. Sooner or later the block to the West will break, and the heat will flow further East; it's rare for this not to happen sooner or later.

Having said that, we do have an impressively strong and southerly tracking jetstream at the moment. The cold front which brought strong storms across the Midwest and North East passed all the way down to Florida which is unusual for July. On the other hand, the heat from the West is forecast to spread East later this week and will spread north into Ontario and Quebec.

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
I think it may be a bit to early to call this yet. You have to bear in mind that further south there is still an awful lot of heat, indeed near record heat, which will probably flow north again at some stage. The sun is still very strong and I think it would be very difficult for a Polar Vortex to become established and stick around before the end of July. I'm not saying it couldn't happen, but I think the chances are very low. Sooner or later the block to the West will break, and the heat will flow further East; it's rare for this not to happen sooner or later.

Having said that, we do have an impressively strong and southerly tracking jetstream at the moment. The cold front which brought strong storms across the Midwest and North East passed all the way down to Florida which is unusual for July. On the other hand, the heat from the West is forecast to spread East later this week and will spread north into Ontario and Quebec.

While there is still a lot of heat at low lattitudes, i think of the formation of a polar vortex as happening in three stages...

1) Lots of mini Vortices, and thus lots of mixing airmasses...

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/2007/...00120070720.png

2) A defined area with little mixing of the airmasses and thus cooling occuring...

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/2001/...00120010801.png

3) Expanding polar cell with clearly defined Polar Vortex

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/2002/...00120020901.png

Current ouputs suggest we should reach stage two in 120 hours, the 25th.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnz500m5.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Reading/New York/Chicago
  • Location: Reading/New York/Chicago
While there is still a lot of heat at low lattitudes, i think of the formation of a polar vortex as happening in three stages...

Time will tell I suppose! I just think that there's too much heat around at lower latitudes for it not to have some impact on any forming vortex. By the time you get to the middle of August there would be more chance, I just think that mid to late-July is too early. I'm not saying it can't or won't happen, it just seems unlikely IMHO.

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

Things are still happening a pace in the arctic, as expected really but not overly welcome.

Since last talking about the NW passage another path has opened, with just one to go now as shown below.

Ice stands at 5.4m down approx 1.7m (or 20-25%) from what is considered average.

There is a very large area of ice (a mixture of old and new) in very great danger of ice melt on the Alaskan side. It's pretty much as thin as thin can be with large areas of open water starting to appear. To lose this would be tragic and would certainly drag the anom to below 2m. I think a single warm plume would probably do it though from anytime between now and around the 20th of August.

I would like to see the NW passage open, but not at the expense of the above, he's hopeing we get that arctic cool down.

Matt

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Posted
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire
Things are still happening a pace in the arctic, as expected really but not overly welcome.

Since last talking about the NW passage another path has opened, with just one to go now as shown below.

Ice stands at 5.4m down approx 1.7m (or 20-25%) from what is considered average.

There is a very large area of ice (a mixture of old and new) in very great danger of ice melt on the Alaskan side. It's pretty much as thin as thin can be with large areas of open water starting to appear. To lose this would be tragic and would certainly drag the anom to below 2m. I think a single warm plume would probably do it though from anytime between now and around the 20th of August.

I would like to see the NW passage open, but not at the expense of the above, he's hopeing we get that arctic cool down.

Matt

Im really suprised not much has been mentioned about this recently. According to the cryosphere site we are now at least 2 million square km below average on ice cover, down half a million sq km on this time last year which itself was a pretty bad year.

Multi-year ice is being lost at an astonishing rate, I wouldnt be suprised if we obliterate the current record for low ice cover this year.

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/arctic.jpg

I imagine the cooler summer here in the UK takes people's attention away a little, but elsewhere it has still been exceptionally warm compared to average. Looking at the current trend, I wouldnt be suprised if we drop below the 3.5 million sq km mark. If August and September remain warm in the Arctic then it could be even worse.

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IM...current.365.jpg

There also seems to have been an alarming acceleration in recent years of ice loss:

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IM...urrent.anom.jpg

Anyone who thinks just because our side of the Arctic is doing better than last year is favourable for a cold winter is deluding themselves. The old analogy by SF of the cold air in winter being like a deflated balloon being squeezed holds true. Whether the ice is doing better at our side of the pole or not, if that 'balloon' of cold air is smaller, we still stand less of a chance of tapping into it.

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

Grand seasonal cycle....just be glad you are not in southern hemisphere......huge/massive widespread cold...but of couse Greece is hotso that over does the massive widespread cold :) We won't see colder winters generally until 2012.

BFTP

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

The NW passage will certainly open, probably by the end of the week, In august the Deep water Passage might open as well.

Compare the amount of ice melt that's taken place in only 2 days.

A grand seasonal cycle, that might well last 10,000 years.!

As you can see from your charts Reef, we are heading off the chart again at probably the worse possible time. A sub 4m year seems almost certain, but how much lower I wouldn't like to guess.

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Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK

Amazing warmth today in the Canadian Arctic archipelago. Over 16C recorded on Banks Island in the Beafort Sea. Late July average temps should only be 2 C.

C

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Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe
Amazing warmth today in the Canadian Arctic archipelago. Over 16C recorded on Banks Island in the Beafort Sea. Late July average temps should only be 2 C.

C

That is awfully high and quite concerning, Hopefully it will cool down soon or we are going to see more Artic ice melting which of corse is not what we want.

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Posted
  • Location: Steeton, W Yorks, 270m ASL
  • Location: Steeton, W Yorks, 270m ASL
Grand seasonal cycle....just be glad you are not in southern hemisphere......huge/massive widespread cold...but of couse Greece is hotso that over does the massive widespread cold :) We won't see colder winters generally until 2012.

BFTP

Although, when I last checked, the pattern of the last year or so had changed and Antarctica had widespread positive anomalies of 10-15C.

We may not see widespread cold winters ever again in our lifetime Blast, never mind beyond 2012.

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Posted
  • Location: 4 miles north of Durham City
  • Location: 4 miles north of Durham City
Amazing warmth today in the Canadian Arctic archipelago. Over 16C recorded on Banks Island in the Beafort Sea. Late July average temps should only be 2 C.

C

:)

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
Although, when I last checked, the pattern of the last year or so had changed and Antarctica had widespread positive anomalies of 10-15C.

We may not see widespread cold winters ever again in our lifetime Blast, never mind beyond 2012.

SF

Where are these widespread +10-15C anomalies? The pattern of the antarctic was of cooling over the last 40 years...only coastal regions have warmed [probably down to ocean warming]. Also there are records galore being broken/matched in the southern hemisphere.....for cold.

We may not see widespread cold winters ever again...but I have a wager that we will. Surprises happen as we know....look at this summer.

BFTP

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
SF

Where are these widespread +10-15C anomalies? The pattern of the antarctic was of cooling over the last 40 years...only coastal regions have warmed [probably down to ocean warming]. Also there are records galore being broken/matched in the southern hemisphere.....for cold.

We may not see widespread cold winters ever again...but I have a wager that we will. Surprises happen as we know....look at this summer.

BFTP

I have to say that no matter how much I am worried about global warming I agree with what you say. The expectation was that Summer 2007 would be one of the hottest thanks to the way this year started and especially April's weather but looked what happened. We may even have a below average July CET.

Karyo

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
I have to say that no matter how much I am worried about global warming I agree with what you say. The expectation was that Summer 2007 would be one of the hottest thanks to the way this year started and especially April's weather but looked what happened. We may even have a below average July CET.

Karyo

GW is real no doubt and is a concern to me too, but not in the way many see it. These 'widespread' record/torrential rain incidents concern me greatly. There is an awful lot of moisture up there and it seems like it wants to fall. There has been talk of tipping points on this board...hoew about we are closing in on a precip tipping point. Earth/Oceans warm, moisture rises up, atmosphere gets to stage where it can hold no more, rain rain rain, sleet, snow???

BFTP

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Posted
  • Location: Norton, Stockton-on-Tees
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold in winter, warm and sunny in summer
  • Location: Norton, Stockton-on-Tees
We may even have a below average July CET.

Karyo

I would say that a below average July is nailed on! And if things continue in the current vein then August will follow suit.

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Posted
  • Location: Ayr
  • Location: Ayr

Sorry if this has been asked before, but why has this graph changed:

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IM...urrent.anom.jpg

to show dramatic warming from 2003 to the extent that the line has never been above average since then? ISTR that it changed around this February, before that it had occasionally still gone above the average mark (e.g. November 2005 I think). This is no longer shown. Anyone know? Carinthian?

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Posted
  • Location: Steeton, W Yorks, 270m ASL
  • Location: Steeton, W Yorks, 270m ASL
SF

Where are these widespread +10-15C anomalies? The pattern of the antarctic was of cooling over the last 40 years...only coastal regions have warmed [probably down to ocean warming]. Also there are records galore being broken/matched in the southern hemisphere.....for cold.

We may not see widespread cold winters ever again...but I have a wager that we will. Surprises happen as we know....look at this summer.

BFTP

http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/images/rnl/sfc...er_01b.rnl.html

Select surface temperatures and see any of the 1-7-30 day anomalies. To be fair there must have been a cool 2-3 days at the w/e or early this week. That notwithstanding the recent anomaly (30 days) across Antarctica is widely 5-10C above par.

Not sure the "records galore" stands up to scrutiny. There have been a few instances of localised "seasonal" weather, but certainly no widespread sustained cold.

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Posted
  • Location: South Woodham Ferrers, height 15 metres
  • Location: South Woodham Ferrers, height 15 metres
Sorry if this has been asked before, but why has this graph changed:

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IM...urrent.anom.jpg

to show dramatic warming from 2003 to the extent that the line has never been above average since then? ISTR that it changed around this February, before that it had occasionally still gone above the average mark (e.g. November 2005 I think). This is no longer shown. Anyone know? Carinthian?

There is a scene in George Orwell's Animal Farm where the animals return to the seven commandments written on the barn wall to find they have changed from what they originally said to the want their leaders wanted them to say.

Duncan, you are not imagining things. Good spot. That link is to an internet archive which has the previous version saved, so we can compare.

cryospehereanomalytk1.jpg

The period from 1978 is the same; the period 2000 onwards is very different.

Looks like some number juggling has been going on. The effect is to make the Northern Hemisphere sea ice graph look like that infamous "hockey stick" graph.

Is this a fraud?

Ed: Actually the pre-2000 figures are slightly different. Looks like the whole graph has been recalculated. Should be a simple explanation to explain this.

Edited by AtlanticFlamethrower
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Posted
  • Location: Sydney, Australia
  • Location: Sydney, Australia

Actually there has been record cold recorded in Australia in recent weeks. The SAM has switched mode this year leading to a decent winter with regular ECL's (eastern cutoff lows) and frequent northerly incursions. Not sure if this has implications for the NH winter.

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Posted
  • Location: South-West Norfolk
  • Location: South-West Norfolk
There is a scene in George Orwell's Animal Farm where the animals return to the seven commandments written on the barn wall to find they have changed from what they originally said to the want their leaders wanted them to say.

Duncan, you are not imagining things. Good spot. That link is to an internet archive which has the previous version saved, so we can compare.

The period from 1978 is the same; the period 2000 onwards is very different.

Looks like some number juggling has been going on. The effect is to make the Northern Hemisphere sea ice graph look like that infamous "hockey stick" graph.

Is this a fraud?

Ed: Actually the pre-2000 figures are slightly different. Looks like the whole graph has been recalculated. Should be a simple explanation to explain this.

Good god! Doesn't surprise me at all actually! Far be it for us mere mortals to question anything though, the scientists (well some of them) are always right of course. Some ought to be careful when quoting scientific 'facts'. Nothing is ever as it seems. No doubt this will be explained away with some statistical nonsense. Very good spot!

Edited by ribster
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