Netweather winter forecast

[Paul]

The Netweather winter forecast is now online (first issue - updates will follow throughout the winter)

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=longrange;sess=

A new winter discussion feature has also been bought online, with Brickfielders current thinking the first article to be added:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=...iscussion;sess=

[Jonnie G]

The Netweather winter forecast is now online (first issue - updates will follow throughout the winter)

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=longrange;sess=

A new winter discussion feature has also been bought online, with Brickfielders current thinking the first article to be added:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=...iscussion;sess=

Why are the average temperature figures quoted so high? Are they daily maximums?

[Turnedoutniceagain]

And so the warming continues........

Damn, after a week over 25c+ in the Algarve, I was looking forward to something Juicy, alas no.

[Paul]

Why are the average temperature figures quoted so high? Are they daily maximums?

The southeast figures will be the highest as that's the warmest part of the country, plus the averages being used are a rolling average rather than the 71-00.

The long range forecasts displayed on this page are based on data from the Climate Forecast System from the NCEP (USA), run out to 9 months in advance and are updated once a month. The raw data is sent daily to Netweather, our systems then average and further process that data to produce a weekly update every Friday. The average figures you see on the forecast are not the standard 1971 to 2000 figures you may often see, instead they are rolling averages, currently from the period 1980-2003.

[Timbo]

Why are the average temperature figures quoted so high? Are they daily maximums?

i

I in also confused or am i just thick I also thought the average temp,s we lower than what they are showing

[Paul]

Please read the item above, and the item at the top of the forecast page itself, it explains about the averages on the system.

[Bottesford]

Interesting read - anti cyclonic gloom seems the order of the day from what I gather for December. Last December was gloomy too - was painful when the days are so short anyway!

Sounds a typical UK winter to me...

[karyo]

When I first read the forecast I thought 'not too bad' as a slightly above average winter is better than what the Met Office are predicting. However, I then saw the chart with the dominant Azores High controlling our weather and thought 'oh no'!

I'll take a cool anticyclonic month anytime than Atlantic dominated!

Karyo

[Paul]

The type of pressure setup shown by the our cfs system currently is often associated with some very good northerly outbreaks, which is also what the raw cfs charts are often coming up with for periods of the winter, so it's not all doom and gloom.

[VillagePlank]

Thanks guys. Great read.

[john w]

So long as the high setups give the italian and french alps some good snow I will be ha[ppy. I fear this setup may be a precursor to another bad winter for the alps though

[snowhope]

So long as the high setups give the italian and french alps some good snow I will be ha[ppy. I fear this setup may be a precursor to another bad winter for the alps though

If the alps suffer at our expense all will be forgiven

[January Snowstorm]

Tbh I don't think much of the forecast.

Very vague with little detail

Certainly won't boost hits on nw

IMO Poor

[tinybill]

I am also confused or am i just thick,reg DEC is that a mistake or has summer suddenly came in winter

Edited October 26, 2007 by tinybill

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

I like Brickfielder's assessment/input but the main forecast is rather lacking in detail, though i suppose this is wise. Not a very stimulating read though.

BFTP

[Snow Bringer]

Tbh I don't think much of the forecast.

Very vague with little detail

Certainly won't boost hits on nw

IMO Poor

Maybe you should do your own LRF and see how the two compare at the end of the Winter Season?

[Paul]

Maybe you should do your own LRF and see how the two compare at the end of the Winter Season?

To be fair he's entitled to his opinion and that's fine and in a way it pleases me. The forecast isn't designed (unlike so many other lrf's which appear at this time of year) to boost hits or whatever, it's designed to be an honest assessment of how our long range model (based around the CFS) is showing things shaping up for this winter. We only started the new model earlier this year and so far it's done well, hopefully this winter will be no different.

We're going to update once a month, as again we see little point in issuing a headline grabbing forecast and then leaving it for 3 months even if things change, which over the next 4 months they undoubtedly will even if the general prognosis remains the same. The whole plan is for it to be of some use rather than just a publicity exercise.

The forecasts have followed the same format since we started on the new system and the number of people viewing them have been very good indeed, so it seems many people would agree with our way of doing it!

[SnowBear]

Thanks and well done Paul and NetWeather!

I dont think anyone can do a long range forecast with any high degree of accuracy, even with all the computers and best forecasters in the world all put together in one place. The best that can be done is look to see any trends, and give probabilities, but always aware that the slightest shift in the positions of all the mechanisms at play in the weather can render your forecast useless at some point along the way. Updating once a month is a good way to go I think, that way you give a long range forecast with the current trends and probabilities, and as they change adjust accordingly giving folks as accurate and as long a range as possible without giving way to sensationalism.

One rogue tropical storm to push its way north and east, and the remnants of it ending up on our shores can change the outlook for winter just like that, and all forecasters end up back at the drawing board as that storm may well have busted blocks and stubborn weather patterns that were in place for some time.

An LRF is an insight and probability as to what may happen, but by no means an absolute and has every chance of going pear shaped the longer we look forward, and folks need to start to understand that I feel.

[grab my graupel]

Well I'm happy with this to be honest, as I feel we have plenty of longrange winter forecasts avaible to us

which do offer detail as we are still waiting for Ian Brown, Steve Murr, G.P. to mention some, and I think too much

information adds to the confusion, particularly if those forecasts differ in anyway, then it becomes a case of who do you

believe.

I think the Netweather forecast is at an experimental stage really and I shall be interested at least to follow it's

predictions to see how it performs.

[January Snowstorm]

To be fair he's entitled to his opinion and that's fine and in a way it pleases me.

Thanks Paul.

Not having a go just giving my opinion of the forecast.

It's a pity in life in general that folk don't say more what they think and feel rather than take the road most trodden

That's the great thing about NW. You are allowed give your own opinion

[Guest Viking141]

So Paul

Would I be right in saying that for December it looks like being cold but calm with a lot of frost and fog, while Jan/Feb will be slightly warmer but with the increased precipitation a good chance of some quite snowy outbreaks. Would that be a fair assessment from my part of the world?

[TEITS]

Tbh I don't think much of the forecast.

Very vague with little detail

Certainly won't boost hits on nw

IMO Poor

I see where you are coming from JS because I feel the same way with regards to the Met O LRF's.

However the problem with LRFs is if you put too much detail into them this discredits the forecast because nobody can produce a detailed LRF and be accurate. The Met O LRF IMO is a waste of time because the very little detail makes it a waste of time producing.

The ideal LRF IMO is one consisting of a month by month prediction of temps, rainfall etc and the likely general synoptic patterns of that month. The type of forecast which I believe is a waste of time is the type that I used to post a while ago where I would try and put detail into individual days!. I am first to admit that my previous LRFs were not only inaccurate but basically crap which hopefully I shall change this coming November.

I like the NW LRF because there is enough detail without being to vague and I also like the way they tell it as it is rather than go for sensational headlines trying to get hits on the website.

[shuggee]

I'm liking the split between the model forecast and BF's excellent commentary - lots to think about and cogitate in there! Good luck too TEITS

[The PIT]

While we struggle to get the details right beyond a week I cannot see how anyone can expect a very detailed long range month released five weeks before winter starts. Hopefully CFS will be completely wrong and it will be a very interesting winter. Somehow though I get a feeling it is going to be a very quiet boring winter with little to talk about. Don't think we'll have many nights sitting waiting for a great storm to come.

[Vince]

While we struggle to get the details right beyond a week I cannot see how anyone can expect a very detailed long range month released five weeks before winter starts.

absolutely bang on the nail mate . my lrf is for a very cold winter ...but ive been saying that for 25 years ...so one day i will hit the jackpot.............one day

Edited October 26, 2007 by Vince